Demographic Challenges 人口挑戰

Population Ageing and Support Pressures 人口老化及支援壓力

Population ageing means an increase in the proportion of older people in the population. The Census and Statistics Department figures and projections used for the examination show the proportion aged 65 and over rising from 20% in 2021 to a projected 36% in 2046. These percentages exclude foreign domestic helpers.

More retirees, together with longer lives, mean that the working population will need to support more retirees for longer. Distinguish a projection from an observed result: the percentage for 2046 is a forecast.

Longer Lives and Declining Fertility 壽命延長與生育率下降

Hong Kong's population ageing results from the combined effect of increasing life expectancy and declining fertility. Male and female life expectancy at birth was 72.3 and 78.5 years respectively in 1981, rising to 81.3 and 87.3 years in 2016.

By 2046, male and female life expectancy at birth is projected to reach 86.4 and 91.8 years respectively. Life expectancy at birth is neither the number of years remaining after retirement nor a lifespan that every individual is certain to reach.

The fertility rate in these figures measures live births per 1,000 women. It fell from 1,933 in 1981 to 1,205 in 2016, declined further thereafter, and is projected to remain low at 938 in 2046. Longer lives and fewer births together change the population's age structure.

Smaller Households and Retirement Protection 家庭規模縮小與退休保障

Low fertility is also accompanied by smaller families. Average household size in Hong Kong fell from 3.9 members in 1981 to 2.8 in 2016 and is projected to fall further to 2.6 in 2046. These are statistical averages, rather than the size of every household.

Family support has traditionally been an important source of retirement protection. Fewer family members weaken the availability of that support, while longer-lived retirees need support for longer. These changes in population and family structure increase Hong Kong's need to strengthen retirement protection.